>>13335
I wont speak to victory conditions much because I think alot can change, but generally it seems like Russia will probably end up eating a chunk out of Ukraine and Ukraine will be reduced to a buffer state no matter what they want
>Russia
has been memed pretty hard by the US using Ukrainians as effective speedbumps for them by supplying them with gear. The results have been defanging the Russian military from realistically being able to touch Europe, not that I think they had plans for that any time soon anyways. Regardless of how their material has been depleted, Russia has shifted into the infinite manpower glitch strategy and are just employing random brown people to run into machinegun fire. This isnt the own you may think it is, as this basically means Russia can stay in the fight for however long they like without really feeling the negatives of it anymore, although aggressive breakthroughs probably wont happen as much with these infinite 3rd worlders they are employing. The war is really theirs to win, as long as they want to be there. Ukraine cant really push them out, and them simply being there gives them alot of negotiating power with the puppetmasters of Ukraine. In the end they will probably get the W, pyrrhic or not
>Ukraine
not much to say other than they are fucked no matter what. They dont have a realistic win-state outside of a peace deal being struck and Russia simply stopping their slow advance. Their Kursk offensive is a meme performed by pseudo-rogue elements of their military that are running parts of it like private warbands, and strategically is a waste of time. The real major problem for them is manpower. As stated above, Russia has activated the infinite manpower glitch meanwhile Ukraine cant afford any of its losses, mercenaries or not. Furthermore, even if Ukraine somehow "won" they are demographically fucked for the next couple hundred years. They will need to avoid conflict for several hundred years and play everything smart if they every want Ukraine to be filled with ethnic(Russians with a different name lmao) Ukrainians of a healthy number again. Best thing for them now, despite them not wanting this, would be to strike up a peace deal and cool off for a bit and make some smart decisions. They also probably should sack Zelensky, but I think foreign entities will take care of him sooner than later, the outlook is grim for him I think
Note that I say all of this couched in the firm opinion that I wish this entire conflict didnt happen. Not to say that I dont think some aspects of it were justified, there are wider geopolitical games at play here that forced Russia's hand, but I wish that the conflict ended only a couple weeks in vs what we have now which is a slow grinding war that is taking the lives of to many brothers. We are WELL past the point that we should be sueing for peace. Alas, the US wants to deplete Russia's military supplies